20% metro subscribers will shift to 3G within first year of launch: F&S

At least 20 per cent of metro subscribers will be shifted to 3G in the first year of its launch.
In a half yearly analysis of the telecom sector, Frost & Sullivan (F&S) says that this figure amounts to 18 million subscribers, which form three per cent of the total mobile subscriber base at present.
As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), Delhi had a mobile subscriber base of 28.30 million at the end of March, Mumbai had 26.48 million and Kolkata had 16.40 million subscribers during the same month. The urban subscriber base had reached 420.47 million in March this year, as compared to 307.51 million in the same month in 2009.
Telecom operators plan to shift some of their customers to 3G in order to ease spectrum. These potential subscribers would come from the metros where penetration level is more than 100 per cent. Operators can then consider accommodating more subscribers.
Delhi and Mumbai, the two largest circles as per subscribers, together constitute 39 per cent of the total subscriber base in the country.
Frost & Sullivan also says that these 3G subscribers will dictate the kind of mobile content and applications that would be available in the market.
Moreover, with the advent of 3G, broadband usage will increase and operators will very likely offer enhanced data plans. This might also open the doors for unlimited data usage plans on mobile broadband.
These dynamics could lead to an increase of around five per cent in data ARPU (average revenue per user). The current 10 per cent of revenue earned from VAS and internet browsing could increase to 15 per cent within the first two years of launch.
Video based applications such as mobile TV, video calling, video streaming and video on demand could trigger the increase in data usage.